It is designed as a statistical regression equation based on past data and current climatological data. The original best model was CLIPER (Climate and Persistence). To predict the path of these storms, meteorologists can use many different models. A hurricane’s possible trajectory is usually represented as a cone, which shrinks over time as the error in the prediction decreases. Scientists can usually predict its path for 3-5 days in advance. Once a hurricane has formed, it can be tracked. They can only say that there is a five percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the coast from April to November. Scientists cannot say that the third named storm of the season will hit Florida on June 30 th. At the beginning of the season these are only labeled as probabilities (Gray, 2006). Named storms are typically predicted based on past occurrences and current measures of factors in the climate. Compared to past seasons, the sustained wind speed follows the Poisson Distribution with fairly consistent accuracy. These can be easily calculated using elementary statistics. They can also predict approximate wind speeds and intensity for sustained winds. the number of hurricanes, tropical storms, intense hurricanes, etc.). Scientists can predict the number of named storms and their breakdown by intensity (i.e. Predicting Hurricane Activity in a SeasonĮvery year around April the meteorologist on the news starts talking about how many named storms are predicted for the season and how many hurricanes are expected to make landfall.
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